History shows that geopolitical risks, armed conflicts, and wars have often been catalysts for the emergence of new innovations in the field of defense technology. Although there is a common belief that conflicts necessarily hinder technological progress within warring states, recent studies—including the work of José M. Ortiz-Villajos and José J. Martos-Gómez (2023) on the genesis of technology and innovation in the military domain—indicate that this assumption is not entirely accurate.
This literature clarifies that the impact of conflict on innovation is not uniform; while some countries or regions experience technological stagnation due to resource depletion and instability, other parties manage to turn conflict into an opportunity to enhance innovation, develop military capabilities, and even expand their defense exports. This analysis aims to highlight this dual impact by studying contemporary conflicts in both Azerbaijan and Ukraine, focusing on the roles of key actors in these contexts: Turkey, Israel, Europe, and the United States.
In countries that find themselves in a state of conflict, funding is often directed towards immediate military solutions, rather than long-term research and development. Azerbaijan did this during the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, where it invested in military procurement instead of developing civilian technology. Indeed, according to the SIPRI report, defense spending in Azerbaijan grew by about 40% from 2018 to 2020, with the largest share directed towards acquiring the latest types of weapons and upgrading the country's military infrastructure. These huge financial burdens lead to a reduction in financial allocations for civilian industries and long-term technological projects, thereby hindering technological innovations in the country.
Conflicts and wars lead to the migration of large numbers of skilled professionals to what are assumed to be safer environments, often accompanied by severe losses in brain drain. The prolonged conflict in Azerbaijan resulted in the migration of scientists, engineers, and technicians from Azerbaijan to more stable countries. During these two years, from 2017 to 2019, the number of Azerbaijani migrants in Turkey was high, as net migration rates indicated a significant increase. This population segment formed the majority of the skilled workforce in the country; they served as a magnet for scientists, engineers, and technicians who wanted to escape the instability and conflicts prevailing in their home country.
Most wars destroy vital infrastructures that are supposed to form the backbone of technological development. In Azerbaijan, there was considerable destruction of infrastructure such as research laboratories and educational institutions. Over a thousand educational facilities, including kindergartens, were destroyed, disrupting academic and research life, which was critical for innovation.
Overall, Harop and Bayraktar TB2 represent another story: conflict brings a range of implications regarding the urgency of supply countries' needs for innovation and their ability to leverage experimental combat feedback to enhance their technological products.
In fact, despite all internal challenges, military procurement in Azerbaijan has led to a real boom in innovation among its partners, particularly Turkey and Israel. For example, Baykar was one of the Turkish defense companies that saw unprecedented demand for Bayraktar TB2 unmanned aerial systems from Azerbaijan. This compelled Baykar to invest significant efforts in research and development to develop advanced unmanned aerial systems. While 98% of revenue came from exports, in 2022, Bayraktar TB2 was the main source of income for Baykar. These large orders from countries like Azerbaijan enabled the company to continue pumping large amounts into research and development to develop more advanced platforms such as Bayraktar Akinci, which has already signed export contracts with four countries. These figures underscore Baykar's export-oriented revenues and its continued spending to enhance its unmanned aerial systems, which Azerbaijan will be connected to through participation in upgrading defense technologies.
Conversely, the Israeli defense industry benefitted from providing Azerbaijan with the latest technologies. For instance, IAI supplied Azerbaijan with its Harop loitering munitions, enhancing its offensive capabilities. This cooperation bolstered Azerbaijan's military effectiveness while simultaneously prompting IAI to develop more technologies in precision-guided munitions and autonomous weapon systems. During 2023, Israel surpassed a record in its defense exports, which reached $13.1 billion, significantly increased by numerous international deals. This increase now doubles the arms exports over the past five years concerning Israeli defense. Most exports related to missiles, bombers, and air defense systems; representing 36% of the country’s total exports. Defense achievements related to this rising demand, especially from countries like Azerbaijan, enabled Israel to reinvest heavily in advanced projects linked to research and development, thereby enhancing its defense capabilities and technological evolution.
The greatest technological spillover from Azerbaijan's procurement efforts went to both Turkey and Israel. For example, the use of the Bayraktar TB2 drone in the Nagorno-Karabakh war theater provides experimental data that Turkish engineers use to improve the algorithms of drones for further sensor integration. This real contribution to sensor integration will reduce innovation timelines and position Turkey at the forefront of global drone technology.
For Israel, the actual use of Harop missiles in real scenarios provided much information about the role of unmanned technology in battlefields. This direct experience significantly influenced newer designs, facilitating the development of new, more advanced weapons and defense systems. Overall, Harop and Bayraktar TB2 represent another story: conflict brings a set of implications regarding the urgency of supply countries' need for innovation and their ability to utilize experimental feedback in combat to improve their technological products.
The increase in military support from Europe and the United States—the prolonged war in Ukraine, initiated by Russia in 2022, led to a radical change in the defense landscape across Europe and North America. The United States and European Union member states significantly expanded their military support to Ukraine, resulting in unprecedented levels of defense procurement and technological innovation. According to the U.S. Department of Defense, military aid provided to Ukraine exceeded $50 billion by mid-2023, including sophisticated weapon systems, intelligence support, and numerous training programs.
The intense conflict in Ukraine has accelerated the rapid development of many types of defense technologies. For example, Ukraine has been provided with a so-called HIMARS system, which has proven highly effective there so far. Its success in operational service has prompted U.S. defense product manufacturers to seek further improvements to increase missile accuracy and range, adding new elements of artificial intelligence for enhanced targeting. It is not hard to infer that the cumulative feedback from Ukraine’s use of the HIMARS system has significantly improved missile guidance technologies.
Due to the war in Ukraine, innovation in defense-related fields is being stimulated throughout Europe; Germany's decision to transfer Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine has stimulated local developments related to battlefield modernization and the integration of tanks. The German defense industry increased its investments in research and development by 15% in 2023 to advance technologies related to improving armor, integrating digital communication systems, and hybrid propulsion systems to enable higher performance of tanks in terms of mobility and efficiency.
In addition, the resulting ongoing conflict has deepened large financial investments from European countries in missile defense systems, electronic warfare technologies, and cybersecurity defense programs. In October 2023, 10 NATO ally nations took a significant step towards increasing joint air and missile defense capabilities in Europe and moved forward with the European Shield initiative. Led by Germany, the initiative aims to support integrated air and missile defense systems through joint procurement with Europeans for defense equipment. As the involved countries develop their defense capabilities, this initiative will also emphasize interoperability and economic efficiency. It represents a commitment to fairly share the burden by European allies associated with collective security as well. The increased financial contributions and joint activities reflect an increasing awareness of the necessity to respond more actively to advancing ballistic threats across Europe. This project is the clearest example so far of the focus that European countries are placing on enhancing their defense capabilities in light of modern security requirements.
Thus, the war in Ukraine has revitalized defense methods and prompted significant technological leaps across the bloc. This is also a new requirement for interoperability and the rapid adoption of emerging technologies to expedite integrated communication structures, joint command and control systems, and integrated defense networks. For instance, in 2023 alone, the NATO Innovation Fund has deepened its work focused on artificial intelligence, autonomous technologies, and cybersecurity. These efforts have resulted in cooperation among member states to develop standardized technologies that enhance collective defense capabilities.
Azerbaijan vs. Turkey and Israel The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict illustrates a stark difference in innovation trajectories between Azerbaijan and its supporters - Turkey and Israel. While Azerbaijan's capacity for innovation was low due to resource scarcity, severe damage to infrastructure, and brain drain, Turkey and Israel capitalized on Azerbaijan’s procurement needs to achieve tremendous gains in their defense technological capabilities. This encouraged rapid developments and improvements due to the emergent demand for drones and loitering munitions, making them leaders in their respective fields in the global defense industry.
Similarly, the war in Ukraine has spurred innovation among allied countries composing the United States and the bloc of European nations, while Ukraine, in order to maintain its technological and economic stability, faces significant challenges. The rapid deployment and testing of systems like HIMARS led to rapid technological improvements in the United States, while European countries have activated their defense industries through increased investment in research and development. This sensitive dynamic demonstrates how external support, in the case of conflict, can enhance technological leadership and amplify defensive capacities within supporting countries, while actual conflict theaters can barely survive, let alone maintain innovation environments.
Geopolitical conflicts have a dual impact on defense innovation: current examples include the conflicts in Azerbaijan and Ukraine, which have clearly hindered technological development in the directly affected countries while simultaneously acting as a driver of innovation in allied and supporting countries. For instance, in cooperation with Azerbaijan in defense procurement, both Turkey and Israel accelerated technological progress in offensive drone and loitering munition fields. Meanwhile, the war in Ukraine caused significant changes in both the United States and Europe, injecting a new spirit into their defense industries and granting them a technological leap.
This is a significant interaction, emphasizing what may be the most important reason why policymakers and defense strategists value this complex interplay: the need to balance urgent military needs and long-term innovation policy. By nurturing efficient and flexible defense sectors, donor countries will be better able to respond to current conflicts and ensure a pathway for long-term technological progress in an increasingly insecure geopolitical climate.
This is an AI-generated English translation. The original text is in العربية
PhD Researcher in Defense Contracting and Cooperation Policies
