The Myth of the Secret Weapon

A general from the Egyptian army recently stated that Egypt possesses hidden and secret weapons, concealed from sight to surprise the enemy if a conflict arises, shocking them and leading to their defeat, and so on....

If this man truly believes what he is saying, I currently feel pity for our situation; and if he does not believe it, then we are facing a deliberate case of obscuring the people's awareness regarding the reality of their country's status..

Apart from the difference in military capabilities and our backwardness for nearly twenty years, and although the missiles and drones of the entity can reach the skies of Cairo faster than your journey from October to the gathering during the crowded Friday,
the military capabilities of Egypt are not unknown to the intelligence agencies of other countries. Even the least experienced Business Development Specialist in a respectable defense industry company can easily enumerate the officially announced weapons and those that are not publicly disclosed..

For example, when you approach China or India trying to purchase tactical kamikaze munitions, it means one of two things:

Either this type of weapon is not available to you and you genuinely seek to acquire it, or you wish to buy it for the purpose of reverse engineering and producing it locally..

In the second case, the deal will often not materialize (it is not difficult to distinguish between a party that came to buy and cooperate, and another that came to transfer technology), and if it does take place, conditions will be imposed that make purchasing in installments over long periods of time.
In either case, it will be clear that you possess this type of weapons or at least are interested in manufacturing them..

Now, if you are seasoned and secretly working on developing a highly confidential weapon, even then, if you actually develop it, you will need to sell it. No country in the world develops an expensive secret weapon solely for its own use, as the development costs would far exceed the returns from owning it. Therefore, the state is forced to benefit from economies of scale by selling the weapon or modified versions to other countries to offset the research and development (R&D) costs and ensure continued production to meet local needs and for export..

Of course, to sell, you must market it at arms fairs and participate in military drills, and in all of this, what you possess and what you are working on will be revealed..

Moreover, developing any weapon requires imported components, and tracking supply chains is sufficient for any modest researcher to precisely know the type of weapon you are working on..

Speaking of arms fairs, there are many in the region and around the world, and Egypt participates in them. Every country usually participates with the aim of selling (and the motivation behind the desire to sell is a deeper subject that I will write about later, as it does not only relate to money).

At these fairs, there are always engineers carrying military IDs, whose only job is to analyze and understand the products, later writing reports about every country that participated with its weapons..

This way, it also becomes known whether you possess this type of weapons or not..

Believe me, the idea that you are concealing a secret weapon that no one knows about is an unrealistic myth. Any serious attempt at development, manufacturing, or even testing leaves a trace behind, and you don’t need to be an intelligence agency to discover it. It suffices to be an analyst working in a respectable defense intelligence firm, or even a follower at known institutions like SIPRI or Jane's.

Take Iran as an example: it attempted for years to develop its drones in secrecy, yet leaks through satellite images, the signature of manufactured materials, and the type of electronic chips in them all exposed the matter even before the official announcement. Once the weapon was tested, the whole world knew its specifications and source..

Israel, for instance, has never officially announced its possession of nuclear missiles, yet the whole world knows this from satellite images of test facilities, and importing multi-stage rocket engines, analyzing remnants of launches in the Mediterranean, unusual activity at the "Palmachim" base, and images of MIRVs leaked by French satellites, and even complaints from European companies about the leakage of sensitive technology to Israel..

The same goes for the United States in the 1980s when it developed the F-117 stealth aircraft, which was then a secret project, yet the Russians and others were aware of the program, and some reports even accurately estimated its technical details, just like the annual predictions about the specifications of the new iPhone..

By the way, for a weapon to hold its value, it must be used, tested, and continually developed, and all of this is recorded and understood.

Egypt itself, all the deals it made over the last ten years for "Rafale" and "MiG" and "Sukhoi" planes, to the German, French, and Chinese defense systems, have all been known and uncovered through international reports or statements from suppliers. Not a single deal has passed without leaving a trace that can be traced. Most importantly, there are analysts who track a single thread to know all the weapon systems that the state will possess after that deal..

In short, any technological development in the defense sector can be easily traced through monitoring supply chains, job requests, increased spending in specific areas, activity in testing and training centers, or communicating with foreign companies, or even registering patents, and more..

So those who still believe that we will surprise the enemy with a secret document will discover too late that the only surprise — unfortunately — will be on us..

This is an AI-generated English translation. The original text is in العربية