A massive transformation is currently happening in the defense industries, and this shift is not in aircraft or tanks, meaning it's not in the bulk of weapons, but in the munitions themselves.
And before you think I'm coming to tell you about something new called "smart munitions" and you say to yourself, "I already know about that," hold on, let's see together how these munitions are changing the nature of defense industries and how they are creating new opportunities for medium and small countries, because every "smart round" today has become an independent economic project.
In the past, ammunition was a low-cost consumable item with a short lifespan. Today, it has become a high-value technological commodity.
Instead of being just metal and an explosive head, it now contains electronics, software, sensors, and real-time data processing.
In simpler terms: Ammunition has become a flying computer that detonates its target!
From an economic standpoint, this development completely changes the rules of the game.
Why? Because you now measure power not by the number of missiles or bombs you possess, but by the cost versus impact ratio — a relatively new concept when discussing munitions.
A single smart bomb can produce the same effect as an air mission carrying dozens of conventional bombs. This means reducing consumption and time, and most importantly reducing risk in air operations.
However, conversely, the price of a single bomb can reach hundreds of thousands of dollars.
This presents countries with a real dilemma:
Is it better to buy a large number of cheap, low-accuracy munitions? Or to purchase a limited number of expensive smart munitions?
This equation can be practically seen in the Ukrainian war.
I know I talk about it often, but it’s a vivid example; when Western smart munitions stocks were nearly depleted after just two years of war, major companies like Raytheon and BAE Systems announced that production rates are insufficient to meet actual consumption!
In other words, even the strongest economies in the world have found themselves rethinking the classical concept of military force storage.
Here we enter a new level of discussion…
We started by talking about how conventional munitions have become outdated and that smart munitions are the better alternative.
But as we delve deeper, we discover that the issue is not that simple, and there is a new trend to rethink the entire matter, due to issues of time and production.
The war has lasted only two years, yet Western countries are struggling to continue supplying Ukraine with munitions.
Imagine if the war were to continue for ten years!
The importance of this transformation lies in the fact that it is no longer just a technical field but has become an entirely economic issue.
Hence, a new term has emerged in political defense economics:
Smart Munitions Bottleneck.
Many studies have begun to indicate that the high technological costs in the defense industries are producing structural fragility in the ability to engage in long-term wars.
And if we take a step back to ask: why have smart munitions become an economic issue more than a technological one?
We will find three main reasons:
Electronic components have become the critical resource in the equation, not explosives as it was previously. A mere shortage of chips or circuit boards can halt entire production lines, creating a direct link between the civilian electronics sector and the global arms market.
Artificial intelligence has changed the concept of precision in the defense industry; today, munitions do not just receive fixed coordinates and fly toward them, they learn the target pattern and adjust their trajectory during flight. In other words, we are talking about an integrated digital system within each munitions piece.
The pricing model itself has changed, as companies began to sell smart munitions on the logic of "Weapon as a Service" similar to the well-known SaaS software model, meaning that the state purchases usage or logistical service, not the complete product.
Countries that are still building their defense industries have a huge opportunity here.
The production of smart munitions does not require a heavy industrial base like that of fighter jets or ballistic missiles, but instead requires a comprehensive innovation system that combines microelectronics, programming, and mechanical engineering.
Turkey has already taken this path, developing a whole generation of local smart munitions such as MAM-L and MAM-T and linking them to its drones, later marketing them as a complete package abroad.
A clear example here: when Morocco bought the Turkish "Akinci" drones, and then a political dispute arose between the two countries, Turkey announced that it would not supply Morocco with smart munitions, rendering those drones effectively scrap metal in storage!
This is a model of a defense economy that thinks in terms of system integration, not merely owning scattered projects that each operates in a separate direction.
As for South Korea, it is a deeper and richer example of this logic...
But discussing it requires a separate post, as since 2006 it has been dealing with defense industries in a completely new and different way and deserves a detailed explanation.
Returning to our topic:
If Egypt or any Arab country considers entering the smart munitions market instead of chasing massive armament programs, it would be — in my opinion — a rational decision in managing defense resources.
It is a technology that is faster to develop, less costly, and has higher export efficiency.
It is essential to understand that this is not just a technical advancement, but a comprehensive economic transformation from an economy based on iron to one based on electronic chips and programming.
This means transitioning from an industry measured in tons to one measured in grams.
Those who understand this equation early will possess the real power in the coming wars.
This is an AI-generated English translation. The original text is in العربية
PhD Researcher in Defense Contracting and Cooperation Policies
